AI utility is low when models are incapable of doing the tasks which human workers do in a day, high when they are capable of doing them, and radically transformative when they move onto what's next.
When the technical tasks a person does as part of his job are not automated the person still has to do them. When the tasks are automated then the person can move up a layer of abstraction, causing his productivity to become untethered from his pre-assistance productivity. We're in the process of this shift now.
We're moving from a time when AI was not providing much of a productivity boost to knowledge workers to a time in which it will provide a large boost. And once workers have moved up a layer of abstraction things will not be over. AI will then take over that layer, too, allowing productivity levels to become uncoupled from number of workers.
Utility scales super-linearly with model time horizon. Increasingly super-linearly. So, this is what we will see in 2026: AI progressing progressively more quickly, with the utility of that progress growing larger and larger, leading to ever faster progress, ever more utility, ever more progress.
Time horizons are doubling every three months. Utility is more than doubling every three months. At mid-year, software engineering time horizons will be 26 hours and developer uplift will be over 100%. Doubling time shrinks to 2.25 months. Mid-August. 50 hours. Developer uplift is 250%. A lot of new hardware is online. Doubling time shrinks to 1.5 months. October. 100 hours. Uplift is 800%. Doubling time is 1 month. November. 200 hours. Uplift 2,000%. Doubling time is half a month. Mid-November. 400 hours. Uplift 7,000%, doubling time is measured in days. End of November. Infinite. Human engineers have obsolesced totally. Robotics is solved. ASI is arrived.